Zogby Midterm Analysis: GOP Lost the Middle

Pollster Zogby: "2004 is ancient political history; 2008 is a whole new ballgame, and moderates will call the shots"

Zogby via BBSNews 2006-12-07 -- The 2006 mid-term elections were a rout nationally for Republicans largely because Democrats won several key groups that had backed the GOP in previous election cycles, an analysis of post-election polling by Zogby International and pollster John Zogby reveals.

The polling firm, which conducted post-election polls of voters both nationwide and in 26 states, found that Democrats won several key groups that had backed Republicans and the President in the 2004 election. These included political independents, voters aged 30 to 49, who Democrats won by five percentage points in this election cycle, and Catholics, who Democrats narrowly won by less than two points.

In 2004, President Bush carried the Catholic vote by one point, and won voters aged 30 to 39 by a wide 13-point margin, a Zogby International post-election poll showed at the time. The telephone poll of 1,021 voters was conducted immediately following the 2004 presidential election. That 2004 post-election poll also found Democrats narrowly edging Republicans among both Catholics and voters aged 30 to 49 in that year's Congressional election, but the President solidly winning many groups Republican candidates failed to capture this year.

Independents Backed Democrats

Several critical factors hurt Republicans on Election Day. First, the Democratic base was slightly more charged to vote for Democrats—93% of Democrats said they voted for the congressional candidate from their own party, while 91% of Republicans said they voted for the GOP candidate—and second, Democrats ran four points ahead among political independents.

This marks a reversal from 2004, where the GOP base was slightly more energized than Democrats and President Bush won among independents and third-party registrants by five points.

Pollster John Zogby: "The message for the 2008 elections for the Republicans is to find a way to get to the middle. In the words of political strategist Dick Morris, they must 'triangulate,' present a Middle Class program, and brush up on their Spanish. The 2008 elections will not be a redux of 2004 - it will be won in the middle, and Democrats are already scurrying to stake their claim on that middle ground."

Gender Gap Returns

President Bush and Republicans did much in 2004 to erase the "gender gap" that has long plagued Republicans, leaving Democrats on the losing end of a heavier pro-Republican male gender gap. That advantage was thoroughly erased in the 2006 cycle, however, with Democrats winning the women's vote in congressional races by 15 points, while Republicans only managed an eight-point edge among men. In 2004, President Bush trailed Massachusetts Senator John Kerry by less than a point among women and won male voters by seven points.

In state-by-state results, the gender gap was often quite pronounced where Democratic candidates won handily. Winning Republicans, such as Florida Gov.-elect Charlie Crist, managed to mitigate this phenomenon. While Crist suffered from no female gender gap and won solidly among men, his fellow Republican gubernatorial candidate, Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, was soundly beaten by Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe, who ran even with him among men while trouncing him among women.

Iraq War Beats Terrorism as Top Issue

More than one in five voters (22%) cast their ballots based on the Iraq War, with this group breaking heavily for Democratic candidates (although 5% of Republican voters also indicated casting ballots based on this issue.

The Iraq War bested the terrorism and national security as a top issue by five points, although nearly all voters who cast ballots based on terror concerns and national security backed Republican candidates.

Two other issues trailed significantly, at 9% apiece: morality, which largely played to the GOP's advantage, and concerns over ethics in government, which was a solidly Democratic issue.

The survey results are based on individual Zogby Interactive post-election surveys conducted in 26 states, and a nationwide poll of 40,001 likely voters, which had a margin of error of +/-0.5 percentage points. The polling was conducted Nov. 7 through 13, 2006.