Image Credit: va.gov.
Republican McCain leads in Texas and Ohio
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Barack Obama.
Image Credit: va.gov. |
BBSNews 2008-03-04 -- (Zogby) UTICA, New York - On the strength of some strong campaigning in Ohio and Texas, Democrat Hillary Clinton of New York has retaken a narrow lead over rival Barack Obama of Illinois in Texas and has dead-locked the race in Ohio, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle survey by Zogby International shows.
The telephone surveys show Clinton had a second consecutive good day, and now leads Obama 47% to 44% in Texas. The two are tied at 44% in Ohio. It is notable that 7% in Texas and 8% in Ohio said they were yet unsure about who to support in the Democratic Party race, even at this late moment. The surveys also show support is somewhat soft in the race, and could still shift in the waning hours.
The historic race between the first woman and first African American with serious chances to win a major party presidential race has been contentious in both Texas and Ohio, as the two are still battling to gain supremacy in the race for party delegates.
|
Texas - Democrats |
3-1/3 |
2-29/3-2 |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
47% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
42% |
|
Obama |
44% |
47% |
47% |
45% |
48% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
2% |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Someone else |
2% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
7% |
|
Ohio - Democrats |
3-1/3 |
2-29/3-2 |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
44% |
45% |
47% |
45% |
44% |
|
Obama |
44% |
47% |
46% |
45% |
42% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Someone else |
3% |
2% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
8% |
6% |
5% |
6% |
9% |
Pollster John Zogby: In Ohio, there have been no dramatic changes. This has always been close, except that now the undecideds are up to 8%, and the increase has come from the Obama column. It looks like a combination of questions raised about Obamas capacity to lead the military, his stance on NAFTA, and questions about ethics have shaved a few points off his support.
Clinton has not closed the deal yet, but she has picked up some additional support among women and older voters. Obama continues to lead in the big cities of Ohio, and it looks like Cincinnati is keeping him in this game. He has been working it hard, and has received the endorsement of the mayor there. But Clinton has opened up a big lead among Catholics which, translated, means white ethnics.
In Texas, Hillary had a slight lead in Sundays polling, which was enhanced by her lead in Mondays polling, and those are the figures combined into the two-day rolling average of our poll. How did she pull ahead? She clearly increased support among white men and Hispanic men, mostly based on her late campaign focusing on her fitness for military command. She also enjoys strong support from white and Hispanic women. One thing that could prove significant is that much of Obamas recent advances in the Houston area seem to have dissipated.
Among those in Texas who were just making up their minds in the last few days, Hillary now leads by four percent, which pretty much tells the story.
The telephone surveys also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, holding his edges in Texas and Ohio. He continues to enjoy a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. He has made gains among Texas Republicans and appears headed for victory in both states.
|
Ohio - Republicans |
3-1/3 |
2-29/3-2 |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
59% |
61% |
61% |
58% |
62% |
|
Huckabee |
29% |
28% |
27% |
23% |
19% |
|
Paul |
5% |
5% |
3% |
8% |
8% |
|
Someone else |
2% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
4% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
|
Texas - Republicans |
3-1/3 |
2-29/3-2 |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
57% |
53% |
54% |
54% |
53% |
|
Huckabee |
29% |
33% |
36% |
31% |
27% |
|
Paul |
6% |
6% |
4% |
7% |
11% |
|
Someone else |
4% |
4% |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
3% |
4% |
4% |
5% |
The Democratic Party survey in Ohio included 828 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. The Texas survey of Democrats included 855 likely voters and
carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted March 1-3, 2008.
The Republican survey in Ohio included 712 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The Texas survey of Republicans included 704 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted March 1-3, 2008. Percentages in charts may not equal 100% due to rounding.
The surveys were all conducted using live English- and Spanish-speaking telephone operators working in Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.
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