Republican John McCain remains well ahead of Mike Huckabee, but the Arkansan gains a little ground
BBSNews 2008-02-02 -- UTICA, New York—The Democratic Party presidential primaries in Texas and Ohio have settled into a deadlock between Sens. Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, with Clinton holding a scant one-point lead in Ohio and Obama leading by just four points in Texas, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day telephone tracking poll shows.
The two delegate-rich states with elections on Tuesday are among the last of the big states left in the primary election season, and both candidates stand to split the delegates under the partys proportional delegate apportionment scheme.
The surveys, conducted by Zogby International, also show Republican front-runner John McCain, the senator from Arizona, retaining a sizable lead over closest challenger Mike Huckabee of Arkansas. But Huckabee made modest gains over the last 24 hours of polling.
|
Texas - Democrats |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
43% |
43% |
42% |
|
Obama |
47% |
45% |
48% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Someone else |
2% |
3% |
3% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
8% |
7% |
In the Democratic race in Texas, Clinton and Obama saw stability set in among the key demographic groups. Obama leads slightly among men, and the two are essentially tied among women. Clinton continues to enjoy a sizable lead among Hispanic voters, and also leads by 7% among white voters there.
|
Ohio - Democrats |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
47% |
45% |
44% |
|
Obama |
46% |
45% |
42% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Someone else |
1% |
3% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
5% |
6% |
9% |
Obama holds a two-to-one lead among voters under age 30, while Clinton leads 56% to 31% among voters age 65 and older. Obama continues to lead in the Dallas and Houston areas, while Clinton leads in more rural areas, including southern Texas.
In Ohio, the Democratic candidates have solidified their support among those groups that have come to be familiar supporters of each. Obama leads Clinton among men by a 52% to 41% margin, while Clinton leads Obama among women by an identical 52% to 41% edge.
Obama leads among Ohio voters under age 50, while Clinton leads among voters over age 50. Clinton leads in the rural areas of Ohio and in Cincinnati, while Obama leads in the Democratic bastion of Cleveland and the state capital of Columbus.
In the GOP races, McCain continues to enjoy a big lead in each state, though Huckabee saw his numbers bump up in both states.
|
Ohio - Republicans |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
61% |
58% |
62% |
|
Huckabee |
27% |
23% |
19% |
|
Paul |
3% |
8% |
8% |
|
Someone else |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
6% |
7% |
6% |
Among mainline conservatives in Texas, McCain led Huckabee by a 57% to 36%, but among those Texans who consider themselves very conservative, Huckabee leads, 57% to 36%. McCain leads 71% to 16% among GOP moderates. In Ohio, McCain appears to be winning over more of the conservative bloc, as he leads Huckabee 63% to 27% among mainline conservatives. Huckabee leads among Ohios very conservative, 52% to 38%. McCain leads 70% to 18% among Ohio moderates.
|
Texas - Republicans |
2-28/3-1 |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
54% |
54% |
53% |
|
Huckabee |
36% |
31% |
27% |
|
Paul |
4% |
7% |
11% |
|
Someone else |
3% |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
4% |
5% |
The Democratic Party surveys in Ohio included 746 likely voters, while the Texas survey of Democrats included 736 likely voters. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 28 to March 1, 2008, and carry margins of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.
The Republican survey in Ohio included 657 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. The Texas survey of Republicans included 608 likely voters, and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 28-March 1, 2008.
The surveys were all conducted using live English- and Spanish-speaking telephone operators working in Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.
NOTE: Yesterdays release incorrectly mentioned that Clinton led Obama by double-digits in Texas in the one-day of polling completed on Friday, Feb. 29. Her one-day advantage was actually one point.
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