Republican John McCain retains wide leads in Ohio and Texas in advance of Tuesday's primaries
BBSNews 2008-03-01 -- (Zogby) UTICA, New York—Democrat Hillary Clinton stemmed her losses and solidified her base in Texas, reversing a slide against rival Barack Obama in the race for their party’s presidential nomination, while Obama continued his thrust to catch her in Ohio as voters in these two big states prepare to vote on Tuesday, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Houston Chronicle two-day rolling telephone tracking polls show.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain appears to be continuing his march to the GOP nomination, holding big leads in both states, the surveys show.
Clinton leads by a scant one percent among Texas women, but the race is also close among Texas men, where Obama leads by just 5%, much less than in some earlier states in this epic Democratic Party battle. As has been the case elsewhere, Clinton leads among older voters, but Obama leads big among younger Texas Democrats. Clinton had a big day Friday in the Zogby call center, leading Obama by double-digits in the Texas survey. She retains a significant lead among Hispanic voters there, a key demographic in the Democratic primary.
|
Texas - Democrats |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
43% |
42% |
|
Obama |
45% |
48% |
|
Gravel |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Someone else |
3% |
3% |
|
Not sure |
8% |
7% |
In Ohio, the two Democrats have drawn dead-even to the tenth of a percent (44.8% each), as Clinton continued to show strength in northern Ohio outside Cleveland, but trailed Obama badly in northeast Ohio and in burgeoning central Ohio, where the capital city of Columbus is home to many state government workers. Clinton leads in the more sparsely-populated, less affluent southern Ohio region. She also retains a small lead among Catholics, an important voting bloc in this Rust Belt state.
|
Ohio - Democrats |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
Clinton |
45% |
44% |
|
Obama |
45% |
42% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
1% |
|
Someone else |
3% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
6% |
9% |
In the GOP race, McCain has commanding leads in each state, and has focused most of his fire on the Democrats instead of on Republican opponents. He has successfully reduced the resistance among the conservative base to about 20%, down from about one-third of the GOP electorate in recent states. In Ohio, he leads 58% to 23% for Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee, and in Texas, his edge is 54%-31%. Among Texas conservatives, McCain leads 59% to 28% over Huckabee.
|
Ohio - Republicans |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
58% |
62% |
|
Huckabee |
23% |
19% |
|
Paul |
8% |
8% |
|
Someone else |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
7% |
6% |
|
Texas - Republicans |
2-27/29 |
2-26/28 |
|
McCain |
54% |
53% |
|
Huckabee |
31% |
27% |
|
Paul |
7% |
11% |
|
Someone else |
4% |
5% |
|
Not sure |
4% |
5% |
Pollster John Zogby: "Hillary Clinton may be making a connection with Democratic voters in Texas, especially among those in key demographic groups that have supported her all year. Among those age 65 and older, she has made strong gains in the last 24 hours of polling. She also retains a big lead among Hispanic voters in Texas, and has made small gains among white voters.
"However, it is important to note that Barack Obama continues to hold big leads among voters in Dallas and in Houston, where there is a heavy concentration of congressional districts and, therefore, delegates to the Democratic National Convention. By most accounts, Clinton needs to win big in both Texas and Ohio to make significant inroads in Obama's delegate lead, and our polling shows that is going to be difficult for her to accomplish.
"In Ohio, Obama continued his march to catch Clinton in the race there, erasing her two-point lead in yesterday's tracking poll. The two are now tied - down to the tenth of a percent. As is the case in Texas, Obama leads in the big Democratic cities Ohios Cleveland and Columbus, now the biggest city in Ohio where thousands of unionized state government employees live. Clinton's strength remains in the more rural areas, and among Catholics, an important demographic group in Ohio.
"In the Republican races, John McCain continues to roll up impressive leads over Arkansas' Mike Huckabee, but he is making slow-but-steady progress among conservatives. With the nomination all but wrapped up, McCain has begun to take aim at the Democrats, and Republican voters in Texas and Ohio are showing no resentment that he now seems to be looking to the general election battle."
The Democratic Party surveys in Ohio included 701 likely voters, while the Texas survey of Democrats included 708 likely voters. Both surveys were conducted Feb. 27-29, 2008, and carry margins of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Republican survey in Ohio included 600 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. In Texas, the GOP survey included 596 likely voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Both GOP surveys were conducted Feb. 27-29, 2008.
The surveys were all conducted using live English- and Spanish-speaking telephone operators working in Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York.
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