Clinton, Obama Neck-and-Neck in Key Super Tuesday States
BBSNews 2008-02-03 -- (Zogby) According to Pollster John Zogby: "The Mac Attack appears ready to launch on Super Tuesday. McCain''s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50. Romney holds a double digit lead there among conservatives and leads 56%-18% among very conservative voters. Romney also leads among white voters and among those who say that the war on terror and immigration are top issues."
"McCain will do well because of his big leads in the other states and because of winner-take-all states. But Romney may at least have a strong showing in California. In Missouri, Huckabee is in second place by virtue of strong support with conservative and (especially) very conservative voters."
"On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama's lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%)."
"In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points)."
"Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65."
"It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates."
Key Super Tuesday States by the Numbers:
New Jersey Republicans
Republicans |
1-31/2-2 |
|
McCain |
54% |
|
Romney |
23% |
|
Huckabee |
6% |
|
Paul |
4% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
13% |
Sample: 870 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
New Jersey Democrats
Democrats |
1-31/2-2 |
|
Clinton |
43% |
|
Obama |
42% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
14% |
Sample: 868
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
New York Republicans
Republicans |
1-31/2-2 |
|
McCain |
49% |
|
Romney |
23% |
|
Huckabee |
8% |
|
Paul |
6% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
13% |
Sample: 974
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points
Georgia Democrats
Democrats |
1-31/2-2 |
|
Clinton |
28% |
|
Obama |
48% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
23% |
Sample: 940
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.3 percentage points
Missouri Republicans
Republicans |
1-31/2-2 |
|
McCain |
36% |
|
Romney |
22% |
|
Huckabee |
27% |
|
Paul |
4% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
11% |
Sample: 868
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
Missouri Democrats
Democrats |
1-31/2-2 |
|
Clinton |
44% |
|
Obama |
43% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
13% |
Sample: 877
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
California Republicans
Republicans |
1-31/2-2 |
|
McCain |
34% |
|
Romney |
37% |
|
Huckabee |
12% |
|
Paul |
5% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
13% |
Sample: 1,185 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points
California Democrats
Democrats |
1-31/2-2 |
|
Clinton |
41% |
|
Obama |
45% |
|
Gravel |
1% |
|
Undecided/someone else |
15% |
Sample: 1,141
likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points
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