Dems Maintain Lead in Key House Contests, But Momentum Shifts Indicate an Unsettled Electorate
Zogby via BBSNews 2006-11-01 -- Democrats have gained ground in many of 15 key races for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, but have also lost ground in some of those races, a new package of Reuters/Zogby polls show, suggesting that while Democrats hold an edge, the landscape for the 2006 midterm elections remains unusually fluid as the sprint to the finish line begins.
The Democratic candidate leads the Republican in 12 of 15 key races for vulnerable seats now held by Republicans, up from leads in 11 races that an identical round of polling revealed last month.
The live telephone surveys in the 15 congressional districts each included at least 500 interviews of likely voters, and was conducted Oct. 24-29, 2006. The surveys carry a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.
Of the 15 Democrats challenging for these 15 GOP seats, seven have increased leads they held in our earlier round of polling. Of the other four who led their races last month, three have lost ground but still lead in their races. The other one—Democrat Phil Kellam running against Thelma Drake in Virginia’s 2nd District, lost his four–point lead and now trails by 8%.
In two races where the Republican incumbent held a small lead one month ago, in Kentucky 4 and Iowa 1, the new Reuters/Zogby poll shows the Democratic challenger now leading. In Connecticut’s 2nd CD, incumbent Republican Rob Simmons has slightly increased what last month was a small lead.
Of the six races for open seats now held by Republicans, Democrats lead in five. In the remaining nine races involving Republican incumbents, Democratic challengers lead in seven.
Of the 12 races led by Democrats, six of them are outside the margins of error. Only one Republican—Michelle Bachman, running against Democrat Patty Wetterling in Minnesota’s 6th District – holds a lead outside the margin of error.
While some Democratic leads have increased steadily heading down the stretch, other Democratic challengers have done far better.
In Illinois’ 6th District, which encompasses the western suburbs of Chicago and is now represented by outgoing Republican Henry Hyde, Democrat Tammy Duckworth, an Iraqi War veteran and double amputee, has moved from 5% ahead of Republican Peter Roskam to 14% ahead. This district is right next door to the Chicago district represented by Rahm Emanuel, the Clinton-era White House advisor who is now in charge of the Democratic efforts to take control of the House of Representatives. The Democratic surge in this district holds one more irony for Emanuel, who witnessed the impeachment of his former boss led by a team of Republicans - one of whom was Hyde.
In the Ohio congressional district still occupied by outgoing Republican Bob Ney, who recently pleaded guilty to federal crimes that grew out of his relationship with lobbyist Jack Abramoff, Democrat Zack Space has ballooned a once-anemic lead over Republican Joy Padgett. He now is ahead, 53% to 33%, the Reuters/Zogby poll shows. After what they have witnessed this year, the Republicans in this southern Ohio district are apparently finding it hard to support their own party’s replacement for Ney—just 62% of GOPers said they support Padgett.
By contrast, 86% of Democrats said they are supporting Space.
In the other district touched by the whiff of scandal this year—Arizona’s 8th – the Democrat, Giffords, is doing well. The incumbent, James Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican in Congress, long ago announced his retirement, but he is leaving office after recently acknowledging he had taken a camping trip with congressional pages 10 years ago. Federal investigators are looking into the matter. His admission came after our first round of Reuters/Zogby polling, and in the wake of the Mark Foley page scandal that continues to rock Washington. Our latest survey shows undecided likely voters in the district have since flocked to Democrat Giffords and away from Randy Graf, the GOP candidate in the race.
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15 Key House Races (all now held by Republicans) |
What is the status of the seat? |
Who now leads? |
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AZ-8 (R: Graf vs. D: Giffords) |
Open |
Democrat Giffords +11 |
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CO-7 (R: O'Donnell vs. D:Permutter) |
Open |
Democrat Perlmutter +14 |
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CT-2 (R:Simmons vs. D:Courtney) |
Simmons up for reelection |
Republican Simmons +4 |
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CT-4 (R:Shays vs. D:Farrell) |
Shays up for reelection |
Democrat Farrell +7 |
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IA-1 (R:Whalen vs. D: Braley) |
Open |
Democrat Braley +7 |
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IL-6 (R:Roskam vs. D: Duckworth) |
Open |
Democrat Duckworth +14 |
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IN-2 (R: Chocola vs. D:Donnelly) |
Chocola up for reelection |
Democrat Donnelly +13 |
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IN-9 (R:Sodrel vs. D: Hill) |
Sodrel up for reelection |
Democrat Hill +2 |
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KY-4 (R: Davis vs. D: Lucas) |
Davis up for reelection |
Democrat Lucas +3 |
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MN-6 (R: Bachmann vs. D:Wetterling) |
Open |
Republican Bachmann +10 |
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NC-11(R: Taylor vs. D:Shuler) |
Taylor up for reelection |
Democrat Schuler +4 |
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NM-1(R:Wilson vs. D: Madrid) |
Wilson up for reelection |
Democrat Madrid +9 |
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OH-18 (R: Padgett vs. D:Space) |
Open |
Democrat Space +20 |
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PA-6 (R: Gerlach vs. D: Murphy) |
Gerlach up for reelection |
Democrat Murphy +5 |
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VA-2 (R: Drake vs. D: Kellam) |
Drake up for reelection |
Republican Drake +8 |
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