Image Credit: gohmert.house.gov.
High percentages of undecided voters throws the 2006 midterm elections into question, Pollster Zogby says
Zogby via BBSNews 2006-10-10 -- The Mark Foley scene roiling Washington these days is just the latest twist of theatrics in a political melodrama that we otherwise know as the 2006 midterm election season. But with the final act quickly heading from the wings to the stage, the election appears to rest in the hands of the undecided voters watching from the safety of the balcony - those who have seen the show perhaps one too many times to be moved.
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Rep. Gohmert joins members of the House and Senate with purple voting ink on their fingers to salute the brave voters of Iraq during President Bush's 2005 State of the Union Address.
Image Credit: gohmert.house.gov. |
Polling by Zogby International this summer and fall shows this undecided audience, having sat through ugly plot twists involving Foley, William Jefferson, Bob Ney and Jack Abramoff, and others, may be disgusted with the program. Congressional job approval is at just over 20% positive - a low not seen since the midterm elections of 1994, the last time this Washington production faced massive changes in the cast.
The latest Reuters/Zogby poll, released this past week, shows America’s undecided likely voters—almost a conundrum in that they are planning to vote in the midterm elections but can’t decide whom to support—have swelled to such numbers that they may well hold the key to who will control the gavels on Capitol Hill.
Pollster John Zogby: "There are certain groups I look at to see how they are trending, and it’s interesting this year. For instance, born-again Christians generally can be counted on to give Republicans 70% to 75% of their support, and the rest go to the Democrats. But this year, what I’ve seen is that in the races where the Democrats are leading, the Republicans are getting only 52% to maybe 61% of the born-again support. But what’s happening is, the Democrats are not getting the rest. They are instead moving into the undecided column, and that’s standard. That means they are disappointed in the Republicans, and whether or not they can be brought back into the fold is the challenge for the GOP.
"But there’s more. The challenge for Republicans is that when they find themselves in this situation, and they tip too far in the direction of the Christian conservatives, they could alienate independent voters, centrist voters. It’s a tricky strategy."
Another key demographic for Republicans, recently discovered by Pollster Zogby—the weekly WalMart voter—is showing the same signs of indecision. In the last election in which national leaders were selected, they went for President Bush in a big way. Later, their disillusionment began to register in lower job approval ratings for the commander in chief. A month ago, they started to come back, but the latest Reuters/Zogby poll shows that progress has stalled.
Tennessee Republican Bob Corker, running to keep the seat of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist in GOP hands, is winning just 41% support from weekly WalMart shoppers—little more than half of the percentage that backed President Bush just two years ago. Meanwhile, 21% of those persistent WalMart shoppers are undecided in the race.
Not that the Democrats are immune to such trouble. They, too, are struggling among a key constituency on which they depend at crunch time.
Pollster John Zogby: A parallel to the problems Republicans are facing this year is when I see low support for Democrats among African American voters, they face the same problem in reverse - and there are some races where you are seeing that here. Democrats typically need nearly 90% support from African Americans, but there are places where there are higher than usual percentages of undecided African Americans. And Democratic candidates also face the danger of overplaying their hand and alienating the political middle when they go to win over undecided supporters in the left wing of their party. But, this year, there are fewer instances where Democrats are having trouble.
Those instances include the candidacy of Democrat Jim Webb, running for the U.S. Senate in Virginia, where he is challenging incumbent Republican George Allen. Overall, Allen leads, 48% to 37%, with 13% undecided overall. This is a race where the candidates have been all over the lot in public opinion polling, in part because of the inflammatory accusations that have flooded the airwaves. But in the African American demographic, Webb wins just 61% support in the latest Reuters/Zogby polling, about 30% lower than the average Democratic candidate should be scoring.
Claire McCaskill, the Democratic senate challenger to Missouri Senator Jim Talent, faces the same trouble—she wins less than 50% support from African Americans.
In Ohio, where Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown is tied with incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine, he is winning just 49% of the black vote. Meanwhile, 20% of blacks in Ohio say they are undecided in the race. Conversely, DeWine, a two-term incumbent, finds himself winning only 46% support from those conservative weekly WalMart shoppers. There’s a reason these candidates are tied – they are both failing equally to lock up their political bases, Zogby polling shows.
Zogby continues to track these and other key races heading down the stretch. For more information and updates, visit www.zogby.com.
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