Even Catching Bin Laden Won't Help Bush Poll Numbers
Zogby via BBSNews 2006-06-09 -- With President Bush's job approval numbers languishing in the low 30s, not even Osama bin Laden can come to the rescue, a new Zogby Interactive survey shows.
And Wednesday's death of Iraqi al-Qaeda leader Al-Zarqawi is unlikely to improve the President's numbers much, Pollster John Zogby said.
The interactive survey, conducted May 15-16, 2006, included 1,538 respondents and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. It shows that, even if U.S. military forces were to capture bin Laden, it wouldn't provide much of a bump to Bush's job approval numbers.
Asked how much credit would be due President Bush if bin Laden were caught, 52% said they would give him no credit because he turned his attention instead to Iraq after the war in Afghanistan. Twenty-eight percent would give him all the credit, while 17% said he would deserve some of the credit.
The President's job approval rating in fighting against terrorism would be at 42% if bin Laden were found, the poll shows, which is about where he is right now -- with bin Laden still on the loose. A Zogby telephone poll in May showed his job approval for fighting terrorism at 41%, which was down from 44% in February.
The partisan split on the question is dramatic. While 86% of Republicans would give him positive marks for fighting terrorism if bin Laden were found, just 3% of Democrats would give him a positive rating on terrorism. Among independents, 36% would give him good marks, while 64% would give him negative marks.
Asked whether the U.S. military should announce his capture or keep it a secret, 59% said they would want it to be made public, while 31% said they think it should be kept secret.
Pollster John Zogby: "Americans across the board do want Osama bin Laden to be captured. The poll numbers show that. The magical question is, would it help Bush's approval ratings for his leadership against terrorism, and the answer appears to be 'no.' The problem for the President is that the country is badly split over the war, and those who oppose it are unlikely to change their minds because of a single development.
"Interestingly, the poll shows that Americans are catching up with themselves. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, the attitude was 'Catch bin Laden, dead or alive' and Americans were willing to give up some of their civil rights in order to catch other terrorists. Now, we're coming back to our more traditional views toward freedoms and rights, and when it comes to bin Laden, more Americans say they would rather he be captured and brought to America to stand trial -- not shot on sight, not taken to Guantanamo Bay, not tortured.
Asked what should be done with bin Laden -- should he be found by U.S. troops -- 33% said he should be brought to the U.S. for trial, while 18% said he should be killed by soldiers in the field. Another 18% said they think he should be kept in a prison overseas and interrogated at length, while 11% said he should be taken to Guantanamo Bay and tried by a military tribunal. Ten percent said they were unsure what should be done with him.
Before he can stand trial, he must be found. And respondents said they believe that's a tall order. Fifty-one percent said they doubt the U.S. will ever find him, the poll shows. And for some reason, there is a dramatic split along party lines over this question. Among Democrats, just 20% said it is likely he will be caught, while 75% of Republicans believe he will be found by the U.S.
And even if he is caught, few Americans think he will reveal any valuable information to U.S. captors. Just 13% said they think he will divulge important secrets.
Still, 78% said it was important for the U.S. to find bin Laden. Among Democrats, 75% believe it to be important, and 82% of Republicans and 76% of independents agreed.
This as CBS News recently reported this week that government officials expect a new terror attack could occur on U.S. soil by the year. The alarming aspect to the story: groups now apparently plotting new attacks seem to be inspired by bin Laden and al-Qaeda, but they don't appear to be financed or organized by him or it, and they don't communicate with him or other al-Qaeda leaders. This week's arrests in Canada confirm this development.
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